Speaker Paul Ryan has dealt with one big problem — what to do about Donald Trump — but he returns to Washington this week facing a critical legislative stretch leading to the national conventions in mid-July, with problems looming everywhere.
Ryan and the House GOP leadership face serious challenges to pass a fix for Puerto Rico's debt debacle, funding to fight the Zika virus and the annual spending bills they deemed a top priority. A decision also has to be made on whether to press ahead with the impeachment of IRS Commissioner John Koskinen.
It's not the toughest spot Ryan has found himself in during his eight months as speaker, but it's not an easy course to navigate either.
Democrats are balky and restless, smelling a chance to win back the House this fall, or at least make serious inroads into the Republican majority. Hardline conservatives are unruly as usual and trying to maximize any leverage they have over their own leaders. The White House, while willing to deal with Ryan and Hill Republicans on Puerto Rico, isn't giving ground anywhere else.
And the clock is ticking, with the House in session only 21 days to make any magic happen. The House is scheduled to adjourn in mid-July for the conventions and not return until early September, when it's unlikely Congress will move on anything significant given the proximity to the election. The House will also recess for a week for the July 4 holiday.
That means this is probably the last gasp for Congress until a widely anticipated lame-duck session in mid-November.
To counter Democratic charges of a "do-nothing" Congress, Ryan and his top lieutenants — Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California and Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Louisiana — will spend the next three weeks unveiling recommendations from a half-dozen policy task forces they created earlier in the year. Ryan wants the policy prescriptions, which he's dubbed "A Better Way," to serve as a "rudder" to guide the GOP through the campaign, even with Trump as the nominee.
On Tuesday, Ryan will travel to a drug and alcohol rehab facility in Anacostia in Southeast D.C. to unveil the anti-poverty plank of the agenda. On Thursday, he and McCarthy will appear at the Council on Foreign Relations to talk about their national security program. Additional task force recommendations will cover taxes, health care, regulatory reform and "restoring constitutional authority," or the balance of power between the president and Congress. Republicans believe President Barack Obama has usurped too much of Congress' authority, while the president has argued that he acted when Congress couldn't.
“You will have a clear choice on poverty, jobs, taxes, security, health care and government itself. After decades of executive overreach, it is time we restore our Constitution,” Ryan said in a video released Friday. “That means we take control away from unelected bureaucrats and give it back to the people and their representatives so we are writing the laws that we live under.”
Ryan said the only chance of enacting the policies is if a Republican is elected president, which was his main rationale for backing Trump last week despite their glaring differences.
Rank-and-file Republicans say the agenda — and their performance in the coming weeks on the legislative front — could define the party for many voters heading into campaign season.
“We’ve got five weeks to go. And in that five weeks, we have to maximize whatever we can on Puerto Rico and the agenda, because when we leave July 15, the convention starts. And we have got to show the American people that we have a game plan," said Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.).
Puerto Rico is seen by many lawmakers as a major test of congressional resolve. Ryan, Democratic leaders and the Treasury Department have forged a bipartisan deal to create a federal oversight board to help the island territory begin to restructure its $72 billion debt. The Puerto Rican government faces a $2 billion bond payment on July 1 and could default if no deal is in place by then.
The Puerto Rico bill could reach the House floor this week, though that timetable is still fluid. Republican aides believe they will get a majority of their members to vote for it. The real problem is among Democrats.
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont slammed the deal for creating "a neocolonial control board empowered with the authority to slash pensions, fire teachers and close hospitals." Several key Democrats, such as Reps. José Serrano and Nydia Velázquez of New York, aren't sold either. While Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the White House are lobbying hard for passage, one senior Democratic aide said support "is soft, and it might get softer."
Ryan also will have to figure out how to deal with annual appropriations bills following the disastrous defeat of an energy and water spending package last month.
A partisan fight over LGBT protections for federal contractors sank the bill. Ryan is being pushed to impose "closed" or "structured" rules for floor consideration of all future spending bills in order to avoid "poison pill" amendments. Appropriations bills are normally considered under "open" rules, meaning members can offer any amendment as long as it is germane to the legislation.
Yet Democrats would oppose closing off the spending bills to amendment, as would some conservative Republicans. It's unclear whether Ryan can even muster the 218 votes he would need to implement such a parliamentary procedure. Failure to do so, however, would mean more replays of the LGBT fight, as well as battles over other controversial amendments.
Republicans blame Democrats for torpedoing the energy and water bill — normally among the least controversial bills the House takes up — but a majority of Republicans voted against it as well. And GOP leaders allowed their members to add provisions on Iran and other hot topics that made it easier for Democrats to oppose the measure.
“We have this new challenge of figuring out how to have as open a process as we can, but comply with our obligation to govern in the appropriations process," said Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio). "We’ve always had, since 2011, a very open process on appropriations, but now the minority has realized they can use that open process to roll marbles on controversial issues... It was done as a political ploy, not as an authentic, sincere approach to an issue."
Rep. Mark Meadows of North Carolina, a prominent House conservative, said he may support closed rules as long as there is a chance to take up issues of concern elsewhere.
"When you see all these amendments coming through on appropriations, it really is more a result of pent-up demand or pent-up passion to pass meaningful legislation,” Meadows said. “And so can you maybe look at a more restrictive view on the appropriations side of things if we can have a number of other bills that would make meaningful policy changes to get voted on?”
Senior GOP aides said the legislative branch appropriations bill — traditionally considered under a structured rule, meaning limited amendments — will come up next. After that, the House could turn to spending bills for the departments of Defense, Interior, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.
The Zika health crisis is another hot topic awaiting House GOP leaders.
The House and Senate have passed Zika funding bills, but the Senate measure includes hundreds of millions of dollars more. Most lawmakers feel that the House will give into the Senate position, but Ryan will face resistance from conservatives. Republicans also say the Obama administration lacks a solid plan to combat the Zika threat, though White House officials dismiss that as political posturing.
Yet with Zika now threatening to spread inside the United States, Ryan and House Republicans are under growing pressure to act.
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